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Looper's Delight
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-------------- Original message --------------
From: "Jeff Larson" <jeff.larson@sailpoint.com>
> > This got me wondering just how it is that with the literally thousands
> > of plug ins available today, nobody has created a cross-platform,
> > native looper with all the bells and whistles that works the way we
> > need it to.
>
> Hey what's that on the ground, is it a gauntlet? :-)
>
> The quick answer is that it is incredibly difficult to create a looper
> with all the "bells and whistles" and you could not possibly sell
> enough of them to cover the costs of a typical engineer working for a
> few years. That's why I doubt you will ever see one from Ableton,
> Native Instruments, Steinberg, etc.
>
> What you're left with are hobbyists that tinker with loopers in their
> spare time as a labor of love. They have maybe a few hours a day to
> invest, so something a corporation could throw an engineer at 8 hours
> a day for a year stretches out to 10 years, assuming they can even
> maintain their interest for that long.
>
> Most VST plugins are actually quite simple. They have some core DSP
> algorithms that are difficult to design, but the code that implements
> them is relatively small. The majority of VST plugins for Windows are
> written using SynthEdit which is a sort of like a simplified Max/MSP.
> This makes it easy for anyone that understands DSP algorithms to toss
> out a plugin in a week.
>
> It would be more accurate to compare a full-featured looper to a
> multi-track DAW, and there aren't very many of those.
>
> What you may see someday if looping increases in popularity is a
> corporation scooping up a shareware looper, add ing some of that
> good ol' corporate polish and just giving it away as part of
> a package. Mackie did this with Tracktion to help sell hardware.
>
> > I would pay good money for this, and judging by the sheer amount of
> > people looping today, it would most likely make a profit.
>
> Not to belabor the point but I am constantly being told that people
> would pay "good money" for a more commercial version of Mobius, a Mac,
> port, some special feature, etc. Let's make a business plan:
>
> It is not uncommon for a senior software developer in California (not
> where I live) to make around $100,000 a year or more. The
> self-employed do not get health insurance in the US, so that adds
> another $10,000 for a family plan and you lose perks like a 401K, free
> training, conferences, etc. So let's set the "cost" of an engineer at
> around $125,000 per year. This is what you're going to have to
> compete with if you hope to lure someone away from their jobs at
> Oracle or Microsoft.
>
> Software developers work at different rates, but I would estimate an
> average engineer working alone would require at least a year to start
> from scratch and build a full featured cross-platform looper, and when
> I say "full featured" I'm setting the bar high. And that's just to
> write it. Then you've got to test it, which is also extremely
> difficult. The slightest change requires stopping and testing
> hundreds of little pieces of functionality to make sure you didn't
> break something. Double that if you support both Mac and Windows.
> You will need a "beta test" program involving other people that must
> be willing to donate their time, or you must pay them.
>
> Let's be conservative and say it will take 2 man-years to create the
> worlds most am azing looper. That's $250,000 in engineering costs you
> have to clear before you see "profit".
>
> If we price it at $250 we'll break even after selling a thousand. I'm
> sure that some of the people on this list would consider paying that
> much but I don't think we're an accurate indicator of the size of the
> mass market. I remember hearing there were around 400 list members
> and if you are serious enough to want the worlds most ultimate looper,
> you're probably already here.
>
> A more popular price would be $100. So now we have to sell 2,500 to
> break even. How long will that take? For the last two years you've
> been living off venture capital or a loan that you still have to pay
> back. Now you have to start marketing, paying for adds in magazines,
> flying to trade shows, answering phone calls. It could take another
> year before you've paid off the loans.
> < BR>> Now its profit time! Assuming we even get here, if you don't get
> sustained sales of 1,000 units per year your wife will start
> complaining about how much better it was at your old job. Eventually
> the market will saturate and sales will taper off. Meanwhile you're
> on the phone a lot giving technical support to people who are "new to
> this whole MIDI thing".
>
> No engineer in their right mind is going to quit their job and
> speculate on making a comparable living writing looping software.
> Then again, no engineer in their right mind would write looping
> software and give it away for free, or so says my wife :-)
>
> Regards,
> Jeff
>