That would include most of the programmers in the world, and if my
work experience is any indication, very few of them are who I would
consider "great" :-)
10,000 hours might get you "professional". You would be able to
compete in the job market and be a valued team member. But great?
I think greatness as a programmer is much harder to quantify than
greatness as a musician. Many people think Linus Torvalds is great,
how many great programmers have there been in the history of computing? 5? 15? you pretty much have to create a platform to be considered great, i'd say - make an OS or invent a language, something like that. Even if you write a great application program, that doesn't make you a great programmer (tho something like Visicalc qualifies because it started a supremely useful category). a great programmer would be severely out of place on most of the teams I'm on.